Diamondbacks-Phillies NLCS predictions: Our experts make their picks

June 2024 · 10 minute read

The Athletic has live coverage of Phillies vs. Diamondbacks in Game 3 of the NLCS

The underdogs were at it again in the Division Series round of the National League side of the MLB playoff bracket. The Arizona Diamondbacks felled their NL West division brethren with surprising ease, sweeping the 100-win Los Angeles Dodgers. In the other series, the Philadelphia Phillies repeated their Division Series upset from last year, taking three of four games from the Atlanta Braves while flexing their power muscles.

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So, what should we expect in the NLCS? Can the Phillies win another pennant? Will the Diamondbacks once again surprise the nation? The Athletic polled 23 of our MLB experts to get their take on what to expect in this round, and who they see taking the ultimate World Series prize.

Arizona Diamondbacks (6) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (4)

Staff predictions for PHI/AZ series

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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks NLCS predictions, pitching matchups and what you need to know

Sam Blum (Phillies): This is a series where home field advantage might make a real difference. The Phillies are 4-0 in their ballpark this postseason. It helped them reach the World Series last year. They were able to save Zack Wheeler for Game 1, which could play an important role. The Diamondbacks have been a Cinderella team, and this series will be a great fight.

Kaitlyn McGrath (Phillies): The Diamondbacks are the great underdog story of this postseason, but the Phillies are riding even more momentum. Their lineup will be too much for Arizona’s pitching to contain.

Andy McCullough (Phillies): Vibes. Vibes, vibes, vibes. Also: Stars. Stars, stars, stars. The Diamondbacks have a lot of good players — Corbin Carroll could become an MVP candidate in the coming years, Christian Walker is quite underrated, and the duo of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is enviable. But it will be hard for Arizona to suppress the talent on Philadelphia’s roster. Bryce Harper loves this stage. Trea Turner has caught fire at the exact right time. And Nick Castellanos can’t stop launching deep drives to left.

Katie Woo (Phillies): The best teams in October have three things: An electric 1-2 punch atop the rotation, a lineup that can mash and a lights-out bullpen. Sure sounds like Philadelphia to me.

Jen McCaffrey (Phillies): Philly has more experience and has already gotten past a dominant Braves team.

Patrick Mooney (Phillies): “That’s why you spend the money, baby.” — Bryce Harper on TBS.

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Nick Castellanos and Phillies bask in the view after beating Braves their way to reach NLCS

Brittany Ghiroli (Phillies): This one is tougher than it should be. Arizona is playing really well and they have momentum, having not lost a game in the postseason. My concern is mainly their rotation depth in a seven-game series against Phillies lineup. The D-backs bullpen has been terrific in October and so they’ll match up with Philly there. Assuming Wheeler and Nola pitch well, I would lean Philly’s offense over Arizona’s, though I could easily seeing this going seven games. Both teams are playing really fun baseball.

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Tyler Kepner (Phillies): The Diamondbacks are dangerous, but the Phillies’ star power and depth give them the edge.

Chandler Rome (Phillies): Liam Castellanos will not be denied.

Andrew Baggarly (Phillies): The Diamondbacks outfielders are amazing. They catch everything not hit over the fence. (The Phillies hit a lot of balls over the fence.)

David O’Brien (Phillies): Phillies have the look of “That Team” that is positioned to win it all, with a deep and balanced bullpen, a trio of proven big-game starting pitchers, and a lineup featuring several sluggers who are all raking at the right time.

Jon Greenberg (Phillies): The Phillies are like the pumpkin spice of an MLB October, except we’re not tired of them yet. Also, Bryce Harper.

Stephen Nesbitt (Phillies): Dingers and vibes.

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'We've arrived': Diamondbacks soak in Cinderella run, dismantle Dodgers in NLDS sweep

Fabian Ardaya (Phillies): And what? Pick against the vibes? In all seriousness, the Phillies seem to have the recipe tailored for October. Their lineup is deep. Their bullpen throws gas. They have at least three guys (and maybe four) they trust starting a big postseason game. Arizona has some of these ingredients, too, which should make for a compelling series.

Dennis Lin (Phillies): Citizens Bank Park has produced the best home-field advantage in postseason history, and this latest Philadelphia team has hitters who keep rising to the biggest moments. The Diamondbacks should put up a decent fight, but a Phillies’ return to the World Series feels inevitable.

Brendan Kuty (Phillies): They’re riding an emotional high. I’m not betting against Bryce Harper at this point. Would you? Plus, the rest of Philly’s lineup is so impressive. The Phillies also bring a 1.53 postseason ERA into the matchup, the best in baseball and ahead of Arizona and Texas who are tied at No. 2 with a 2.20 ERA. Maybe this is too spicy, but give me the Phillies in five.

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Sahadev Sharma (Phillies): I like this Diamondbacks team a lot. They have much of what it takes to win a ring — impact talent on offense, a pair of great starters, a few trusted bullpen arms, a calm presence at the helm — but the Phillies have all that too. They also have more postseason experience and a seeming chip on their shoulder after losing it last year.

Will Sammon (Phillies): I’ve liked both teams all season, but the edge goes to the better overall roster in a longer series. That’s the Phillies, who also have the better impact players, too. The Phillies will be able to reset their pitching. They have a great bullpen featuring power arms. And they beat Atlanta without their entire lineup clicking, meaning that it wouldn’t be surprising to see someone like Alec Bohm or Kyle Schwarber break out.

Steve Berman (Phillies): I’m not sure home-field advantage exists in baseball, but there’s something about Philly right now that just seems different from everywhere else. It also helps to have loads of stars. As Bryce Harper said Thursday night: “That’s why you spend the money, baby.”

Chris Strauss (Phillies): Feels like this Phillies team is putting it all together at the right time.

Melissa Lockard (Phillies): The Phillies’ power, home-field advantage and playoff experience give them an edge over an exciting Arizona team that may be just starting a run of many playoff appearances to come.

C. Trent Rosecrans (Phillies): Bryce Harper.

Will the winner of the all-Texas ALCS also win the World Series? (Thomas Shea / USA Today)

Who will win the World Series?

Staff predictions for World Series champ

Tyler Kepner (Phillies): They came so close last year, and now they’re better. Just can’t see Bryce Harper and that group getting back to the World Series and not finishing it off.

Jon Greenberg (Astros): Twenty years after the Cubs’ ignominious collapse in the NLCS, Dusty Baker gets his second ring as a manager and becomes the first manager to repeat since Joe Torre’s Yankees did it in 1998-2000.

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Stephen Nesbitt (Phillies): The short answer — dingers and vibes — still applies. But here’s a longer and more nuanced one: The Phillies are due. They were in my hypothetical World Series matchup — Houston vs. Philly — last year and lost. I’ve already picked Houston to win the AL pennant again. In order for us to have the 2024 Rubber Match World Series, they need to win this one. And they will. They took two of three games from the Astros earlier this season, which we’ll pretend is relevant even though: 1) It was in April 2) Neither Bryce Harper nor Jose Altuve played 3) Rylan Bannon, David Hensley, Kody Clemens, Corey Julks, Jake Cave and Josh Harrison started games. Please don’t question this expert analysis. I will fold.

Katie Woo (Rangers): Texas has dominated the field since Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. They will only become stronger with the potential return of Max Scherzer. They’re also being led by one of the most accomplished managers in postseason history. Advantage Texas, through and through.

Brittany Ghiroli (Phillies): After losing last year, this looks like the Phillies year. Plain and simple. The club seemingly has “it,” the bounces, all the right breaks, and —obviously — a talented group. The bullpen, long an issue of past teams, has been great. The lineup is scary. And the 1-2 punch of Nola and Wheeler is formidable. There is no rhyme or reason in October, but the Phillies’ ownership group has gone all-in and should be rewarded for doing so. Perhaps other teams will follow suit.

Fabian Ardaya (Astros): I think we get a World Series rematch from a year ago. The gap has probably shrunk between the Astros and Phillies from a year ago. But it’s difficult to pick against the defending champs until they get knocked out.

Chandler Rome (Phillies): They’re undaunted, battle-tested and obviously hungry after coming up short last season. Adding a $300 million shortstop and bullpen depth to an already formidable team didn’t hurt, either.

David O’Brien (Phillies): As I said above, the Phillies have everything it takes to own this postseason, including the best home-field advantage in the sport when Citizens Bank Park is packed with energized, raucous fans like it has been for the past two postseasons.

C. Trent Rosecrans (Phillies): Honestly, sometimes there’s just a “feel” of a team destined to win. The Phillies were an underdog last year, this year they still have the dawg in ’em, but are just a better team.

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Brendan Kuty (Phillies): With the Braves out, the Phillies just feel like the right pick at this point. Manager Rob Thompson is making all the right moves, cool as the other side of the pillow. His steadiness is a great counterbalance to the energy his team and his city are bringing every night.

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Andrew Baggarly (Phillies): The Phillies captured one World Series and two NL pennants while winning the NL East five consecutive times from 2007-11. It was a great run, if not a full-fledged dynasty. They might have secured a stronger historical claim if their vaunted 2010 team — the best and most talented group they assembled in that span — hadn’t been upended by Bruce Bochy’s San Francisco Giants in the 2010 NLCS. Could Bochy deny them again, this time while leading the Texas Rangers past the Astros and Phillies to their first World Series title in franchise history? It’d be a great story either way. But the Phils have too much balance, too much firepower, and more momentum than anyone else. J.T. Realmuto said it best: They’re built for this.

Andy McCullough (Phillies): I thought the Phillies were a Team of Destiny last autumn. Perhaps their destiny was just delayed.

Kaitlyn McGrath (Phillies): They fell just short last year, but the Phillies are more battle-tested now and, frankly, their team is just better than it was a year old. Harper is an October superstar and he’ll lead Philly to their first World Series win since 2008.

Dennis Lin (Phillies): Their response to a stunning Game 2 loss in the NLDS was as convincing as it gets. And speaking of homers, Kyle Schwarber hasn’t hit one this October. He launched six last postseason. I like his chances going forward.

Steve Berman (Phillies): The Astros are always the smart choice here, but it’s hard to envision a team that can stymie the Phillies’ offense in a seven-game series.

Sam Blum (Phillies): The Phillies probably aren’t the best team left. But as we’ve seen the last two weeks, the on-paper better teams don’t always win in October. This group is hard to beat right now, and they’ve already slayed the biggest dragon that they’ll have to this postseason.

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Patrick Mooney (Phillies): Stars matter.

Will Sammon (Phillies): From the remaining group of four, the Phillies stand out. With their bullpen and bench, they can answer for a lot of things that come up over longer series. What’s more, they have the stars and experience.

Chris Strauss (Phillies): I picked them as my World Series winner before the wild-card round started and nothing I’ve seen in the first two rounds makes me feel any differently.

Jen McCaffrey (Phillies): They’re trying to finish off what they couldn’t do last year.

Melissa Lockard (Phillies): The Phillies looked like a team of destiny last season but just ran out of steam in the World Series. They have that look again and the experience of last year’s run to get them the title this time around.

Sahadev Sharma (Phillies): I’m riding with Philly. Not much analysis to give here. This is purely a vibes pick.

(Top photo illustration: Corbin Carroll (left): Kiyoshi Mio / USA Today; Bryce Harper (right): Bill Streicher / USA Today)

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